Last Ipsos poll puts ANC at more than 60%

10

The ANC will receive more than 60% of the national vote, regardless of the voter turnout, according to Ipsos’ final poll which was released on Tuesday – a day before the general elections.These and other findings are found in the “Pulse of the People” study which was conducted in March and April 2019.

Spanning the length and breadth of the country, 3 600 in-home, face-to-face interviews were conducted in the home languages of randomly selected respondents.

The poll’s key national takeaways suggest that:

  • the ANC will still be the ruling party after May 8 and the DA will be the official opposition in the country;
  • the ANC draws support from all over the country, but especially from Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal;
  • DA support is concentrated in the Western Cape and Gauteng
  • the EFF support is strongest in Gauteng, the Free State and Limpopo.

Depending on whether there is low, medium, or high turnout, the ANC is predicted to bag between 61% and 65% of the national vote.

Meanwhile, the DA is polling in between 17% and 19% within the different turnout scenarios – a decline from the 22% it received in 2014.

The EFF looks set to increase, garnering either 10% or 11% over the four scenarios.

In the highly unlikely event that all registered voters participate, the ANC’s final support will decrease to 56.92% of the vote, the DA to 15.23% of the vote and the EFF to 9.45% of the vote.

The Ipsos study suggests that in a low voter turnout scenario, ANC voters seem more committed to vote and that the party support will increase notably.

“In a high voter turnout scenario, the ANC succeeds in convincing voters, who would otherwise not have voted, to come out and participate. Thus, both a low turnout and high turnout will be to the singular advantage of the ANC.

“The support for other parties is far more consistent across the four scenarios,” according to Ipsos.

Read more